Pluto Is Far in the Rearview. Next Stop: Ultima Thule

NASA’s New Horizons is poised to arrive at the most distant object ever seen up close—and there could be more to come

Pluto Is Far in the Rearview. Next Stop: Ultima Thule
Artist’s rendering of New Horizons as it sped past Pluto in 2015.

“Liftoff of NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft on a decade-long voyage to visit the planet Pluto and then beyond!”

On January 19, 2006 as the powerful 220-foot-tall Atlas V rocket, with the tiny interplanetary craft cradled in its largely empty nosecone, shot into the blue Florida sky, these words boomed out of loudspeakers, stirring the hearts and minds of the many thousands gathered at Cape Canaveral and many more watching over television and the internet. It was the fastest launch from Earth ever, because the payload was headed for the farthest objects ever targeted by a space probe. As the behemoth Atlas cleared the launch tower, those last three words—“and then beyond” —might not have attracted too much attention amongst all the Plutomania, but now, nearly 13 years later, we are all about to find out what that meant.

The Kuiper Belt—the vast, distant repository of millions of frozen, primitive objects, had been theorized but not yet found when a mission to Pluto was first studied by NASA in 1990. Its discovery in the early 1990s showed that Pluto was not just an oddity at the outer edge of the solar system but part of an entirely unexplored territory beyond the orbit of Neptune. This discovery helped to marshal scientific support for a mission that was recast as an expedition to Pluto and the Kuiper Belt.

In our sci-fi fantasy shows, the spaceships of future centuries are always general-purpose, able to travel anywhere their intrepid captains direct. In the 21st century we’re still in an age where our deep space craft are single-use, designed to go only to specific targets, which they often carry barely enough fuel and resources to reach. A few times we’ve been able to send some of our craft on an added “extended” mission to visit another comet or asteroid.

Yet one of the many exceptional features of New Horizons is that it was designed, from the beginning, to keep going after Pluto and to explore further worlds that had not even been identified when it was launched. This was necessary because at liftoff, there was no known Kuiper Belt object that New Horizons could reach after visiting Pluto. However, our statistical knowledge about the Kuiper Belt suggested there should be many such objects, which might be discovered while New Horizons was en route. Once that happened, New Horizons would be re-directed to visit one of them.

This search did not go as planned. It turned out to be much harder than anticipated to find a post-Pluto destination. This was largely because, the way things lined up, the area of the sky that needed to be explored was near the center of the Milky Way galaxy—the worst possible celestial real estate to look for new, faint objects against the dense population of background stars. As New Horizons made its nine-year journey clear across the solar system, years of looking with the best ground-based telescopes failed to reveal a suitable object. It got to the point where the success of the extended Kuiper Belt mission was in real doubt.

Only an unplanned search with the Hubble Space Telescope could plausibly save the day. In June, 2014, just a year before the Pluto encounter, the Hubble was pressed into service and the New Horizons team managed to find two objects their craft could visit with available fuel. Of these, the object MU69, now nicknamed Ultima Thule (a Greek-Latin hybrid meaning “beyond the known world”), was on a more favorable orbit to intercept.

So now, ever since rounding Pluto in July 2015, and revealing that dwarf planet and its 5 moons to us in all their surprising, variegated glory, New Horizons has been making a beeline towards Ultima Thule, which orbits another billion miles farther from Earth than Pluto. On New Year’s Eve, heading into 2019, Ultima Thule will become by far the farthest world ever explored by human craft, as New Horizons, having traveled for three and a half more years through the cold, black yonder of the Kuiper Belt, skims within a few thousand miles of its surface.

The closest approach will come 33 minutes after midnight East Coast time, yet news of success or failure will not reach Earth until the following morning. At four billion miles, the unprecedented distance of this encounter also means a much greater communications delay than any previous flyby: it will take 12 hours for a round trip at the speed of light between Earth and the spacecraft. While it is executing its last maneuvers, the spacecraft will truly be on its own. The synchronization with our calendrical page turning is completely serendipitous but should make for an especially celebratory encounter: Finally, a real reason to stay up past midnight on New Year’s Eve!

Never has there been the prospect of going so quickly from ignorance to relative clarity about an entirely new type of solar system object. Usually we head into a flyby encounter knowing much more about our target than we do now about Ultima Thule. All we know is its rough size (about 20 miles across), that it seems to have a double-lobed shape, that it may even be two separate objects circling one another and that its overall color is a bit redder than Pluto.

Because it is so distant, small and dark, we don’t even have any detailed spectral clues as to its surface composition. And because it is such a small target and New Horizons is moving so quickly, not until a couple of days before the encounter will it even be resolvable into multiple pixels. Even compared to other first flybys, which are always hectic bursts of discoveries, this one will happen quickly.

The same suite of seven precision scientific instruments that three years ago revealed Pluto to us will now be used to make a quick but detailed study of Ultima and its environment. Is it heavily cratered? Uniform or varied? Rough or smooth? Rocky or icy? Soon we’ll have answers and clues, not just to the history of this one mysterious object but toward a new understanding of the solar system’s lost origin story. For the Kuiper Belt is the distant construction warehouse of the solar system, the place where leftover building materials from making the planets have been kept in a cool, dry place. Up until now it has been off-limits, waiting for someone curious and clever enough to make it out there and discover what relics it holds of the original materials and processes with which the planets were built.

With the Pluto encounter, the last of the classically known planets made the transition from speck to world, from telescopic point to finely photographed landscape. With the rapidly approaching flyby of Ultima Thule, another immense realm of our solar system will be transformed from the astronomical study only of distant unresolved dots to the geological study of the surface, shape and history of variegated bodies.

This will be our first close-up observation of such a distant object and may well be our last for many years or even decades. But maybe not. Since the Pluto flyby, interest in possible new Kuiper Belt missions has grown, and the new results from Ultima may add momentum. It may even be possible for New Horizons to visit more objects in its continuing traverse across the Kuiper Belt. Fuel is limited but some redirection is possible. The nuclear batteries are slowly decaying, but the spacecraft should be operable and maintain communications with Earth for well over another decade. New Horizons’ onboard telescopic camera can be used to search for more targets in its path.

With a little luck, this well-traveled spacecraft may yet find another world to visit before it heads off to wander the galaxy forever, a derelict spacecraft that has completed its mission, a relic of 21st-century human curiosity and daring.

A NASA probe is going to visit Ultima Thule, the farthest object humanity has ever tried to reach, on New Year’s Day

ultima thule new horizons 2014 mu69 kuiper belt nasa jhuapl swri steve gribben
An illustration of NASA’s New Horizons probe visiting 2014 MU69, a Kuiper Belt object that exists about 1 billion miles beyond Pluto.
  • NASA’s New Horizons probe, which visited Pluto in 2015, is closing in on a mysterious object called Ultima Thule.
  • New Horizons will fly past Ultima Thule, formally known as 2014 MU69, on New Year’s Day.
  • Ultima Thule will be the most distant object humanity has ever visited if the flyby goes as planned.
  • The nuclear-powered spacecraft will take hundreds photos of the space rock.
  • The flyby is “about 10,000 times” more challenging than visiting Pluto, the mission’s leader said.

NASA scientists are about to make history by flying a probe past a mysterious, mountain-size object beyond the orbit of Pluto.

If the flyby goes as planned, it will be the most distant object in space that humanity has ever tried to visit.

NASA’s nuclear-powered New Horizons spacecraft will attempt the maneuver on New Year’s Day. The object the probe is approaching is called Ultima Thule (pronounced “tool-ee”) or 2014 MU 69, as it’s formally known.

NASA didn’t know Ultima Thule existed when New Horizons launched toward Pluto in 2006. There wasn’t even a reliable way to detect it until after astronauts flew out to the Hubble Space Telescope in May 2009 and plugged in an upgraded camera.

Hubble first definitively photographed Ultima Thule in June 2014 — about a year before New Horizons flew past Pluto. Now, 4 billion miles away from Earth, New Horizons has the object in its sights.

The deep uncertainty about Ultima Thule makes planetary science researchers like Alan Stern, who leads the New Horizons mission, all the more excited about the flyby.

“If we knew what to expect, we wouldn’t be going to Ultima Thule. It’s an object we’ve never encountered before,” Stern told Business Insider. “This is what what exploration is about.”

Where and what the heck is Ultima Thule?

kuiper belt objects kbos pluto new horizons flight path ultima thule 2014 mu69 alex parker jhuapl swri
An illustration of Kuiper Belt Objects (dots) with New Horizons’ flight path (yellow), Pluto, and Ultima Thule/2014 MU69.

New Horizons is coasting through a zone called the Kuiper Belt, a region where sunlight is about as weak as the light from a full moon. That far away, frozen leftovers of the solar system’s formation — Kuiper Belt Objects, or KBOs — lurk in vast numbers (including Pluto).

Ultima Thule is one of these pristine remnants. It has presumably remained in its distant and icy orbit for billions of years, and it is not a planet that has deformed under its own mass and erased its early history. This means studying it may help reveal how the solar system evolved to form planets like Earth, Stern said.

“Ultima is the first thing we’ve been to that is not big enough to have a geological engine like a planet, and also something that’s never been warmed greatly by the sun,” he said. “It’s like a time capsule from 4.5 billion years ago. That’s what makes it so special.”

Stern added that the flyby will be the astronomical equivalent of an archaeological dig in Egypt.

“It’s like the first time someone opened up the pharaoh’s tomb and went inside, and you see what the culture was like 1,000 years ago,” he said. “Except this is exploring the dawn of the solar system.”

asteroids asteroid field star nasa jpl 717846main_pia16610_full
An artist’s rendering of planetesimals.

Stern considers Ultima Thule to be a “planetesimal” or seed that might have formed a planet if it had acquired enough material.

“It’s a building block of larger planets, or a planetary embryo,” Stern said. “In that sense, it’s like a paleontologist finding the fossilized embryo of a dinosaur. It has a very special value.”

In New Horizons’ first images, researchers will pay close attention to the outward appearance of Ultima Thule. Learning whether the surface is relatively smooth or features a mix of pebbles, huge boulders, cliffs, and other features will yield clues about how planets form.

Each bit of image data from New Horizons, moving at the speed of light as radio waves, will take about six hours to reach antennas on Earth.

Journey into the unknown

In June, New Horizons woke up from half a year of hibernation to begin zeroing in on Ultima Thule.

After a series of checks, mission managers in October fired the probe’s engine to put it on a more precise path to Ultima Thule.

This week, researchers finished confirming that there are no obvious moons, debris fields, or other objects floating in the flight path of New Horizons (and that it might slam into), so they kept the robot on-course for its historic encounter.

The flyby is slated to begin late on New Year’s Eve. New Horizons will start taking hundreds of photos in a highly choreographed, pre-programmed sequence.

“Rendezvousing with something the size of a large, filthy mountain covered in dirt, a billion miles away from Pluto, and honing in on it is about 10,000 times harder than reaching Pluto,” Stern said. “That’s because it’s about 10,000 times smaller. The achievement of getting to it is unbelievable.”

The target of New Horizons’ cameras and other instruments won’t just be Ultima Thule itself, either.

“We’re plastering all of the space around it for moons, rings, and even an atmosphere,” Stern said. “If any of those things are there, we’ll see them.”

new horizons rtg NASA

At 12:33 a.m. ET on New Year’s Day, the space probe will be its closest point — about 2,175 miles— to the mountain-size object. New Horizons will also turn around to photograph its exit at a speed of 35,000 mph.

Stern said the initial images will each take two hours to transmit, and the first ones will be released early in the day on January 2.

However, those early photos will be small (as they were for Pluto). It will take months to receive the most detailed, full-resolution images due to the power, antenna, and other physical limitations of the spacecraft. The first full-resolution images won’t arrive until February.

Stern, who recently helped write a book titled “Chasing New Horizons: Inside the Epic First Mission to Pluto,” said Ultima Thule got its name from a Norse phrase that means “beyond the farthest frontiers.” He shied away from making any predictions about what the images might show, citing how shocking the first close-up pictures of Pluto were.

“I don’t know what we’re going to find,” he said. “If it’s anything as surprising as Pluto, though, it will be wonderful.”

How to watch live coverage of New Horizons’ flyby of Ultima Thule

New Horizons control room
Members of the New Horizons science team react to seeing the spacecraft’s last and sharpest image of Pluto before closest approach

Those interested in watching expert commentary about the flyby and seeing if it succeeded can tune into a live broadcast on New Year’s Day.

Michael Buckley, a spokesperson for Johns Hopkins University’s Applied Physical Laboratory (which hosts the New Horizons mission for NASA), said the lab’s YouTube channel will stream a video feed of the moment scientists learn that the spacecraft made it past Ultima Thule.

The show will go on even if President Donald Trump’s government shutdown over border wall funding silences NASA TV into 2019.

“We’re still planning one going ahead with the programming that we’ve scheduled,” Buckley told Business Insider. “The biggest change is that we wouldn’t be using any NASA platforms.”

He said live coverage is expected to begin on January 1 around 9:30 a.m. EST, and the “ok” signal from New Horizons should arrive after 10 a.m. EST.

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